Blog
Articles about options.
Aug 31, 2026
The Premium You Sold Was a Direction You Took
Ten years of real option chains, 2,000 credit verticals, commissions deducted. Selling puts on a rising ETF made money; selling calls on the same ETF lost more. On a sideways one, neither side produced anything. The win rate pointed the wrong way in all eighteen configurations tested.
Aug 14, 2026
Pre-Earnings Entry Price: What 31,000 Cycles Say
The card tells you whether today's entry is cheap against its own history. That reading only means something if it predicts anything — so I tested it, walk-forward, on every completed cycle. It does. The uncomfortable part is what happened when I tested the win rate filter the same way.
Aug 12, 2026
Most Winners Arrive in the First Three Days
A reader observed that pre-earnings winners cluster in the first week. The raw histogram would say that even if nothing real were happening — so I checked properly. The pattern holds, but the conclusion isn't the one you'd expect.
Aug 11, 2026
Expensive Compared to What?
A $12 straddle on a $200 stock is not expensive or cheap. It is $12. Whether that is a lot depends entirely on what you compare it to — and there are three defensible comparisons, each answering something different. Two compare the ticker to itself. Only one compares a price to something real.
Aug 6, 2026
Expensive Isn't a Veto
A pre-earnings setup my own entry gauges told me to skip. It returned 42%. Here's what that does and doesn't mean about reading an expensive entry.